Bitcoin starts the last week of October on the back foot. According to CoinDesk, BTC fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 during Asian trading hours on Monday, October 26, as traders reduced risk ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Ether dropped almost 3% to just above $2,300, XRP lost about 3% to $1.28 and Solana (SOL) was barely holding $100. TRX was the only major token in the green.
The move extends a weak second half of last week. Kraken data compiled by CryptoWatchDesk shows Bitcoin opened the week of October 19 at about $82,000, reached $84,840 on Wednesday and then gave back the whole gain. On Saturday, October 24, it fell to about $79,120, its lowest level since September 18.
Why the Fed matters this week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 27-28. The statement is due at 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday, October 28, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
After the Fed raised rates in September, the target range sits at 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets do not expect another move this week: CME FedWatch put the odds of no change at about 90.6%, as reported by BeInCrypto. The bigger question is December, where FedWatch showed roughly 68% odds of a hike. That is why traders will focus on the tone of the press conference rather than the decision itself.
The macro backdrop is not easy for risk assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5% on Friday, and analysts quoted by CoinDesk pointed to high oil prices and inflation as reasons the Fed could sound hawkish. Higher rates usually mean less liquidity for both stocks and crypto.
Key dates for the week
- Tuesday, October 27: The FOMC begins its two-day meeting.
- Wednesday, October 28: Fed decision and press conference. Strategy also holds a special shareholder meeting on changes to its preferred stocks.
- Thursday, October 29: US third-quarter GDP (advance estimate) and September PCE inflation at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC). Economists cited by BeInCrypto expect PCE inflation of about 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. The European Central Bank also announces its decision, and Strategy and Coinbase report third-quarter results after the US close.
- Friday, October 30: About 136,000 BTC of Deribit options, worth roughly $10.9 billion, expire at 08:00 UTC, according to CryptoWatchDesk's reading of Deribit data. The Bank of Japan announces its rate decision the same day.
- Friday, October 30: Coinbase converts remaining balances of USDT and 13 other stablecoins that are not MiCA-compliant into USDC for retail customers in the European Economic Area, according to its help centre.
- Tuesday, November 3: US midterm elections, which some analysts see as one reason the Fed may wait until December.
What the options expiry shows
Friday's expiry is large, but most of it sits far from the current price. CryptoWatchDesk counted about 87,500 BTC in calls against 48,500 BTC in puts, a put-to-call ratio of 0.55. The single biggest strike is $95,000, almost entirely calls, which would expire worthless if BTC stays near $80,000.
Closer to the market, the book is more balanced. Between $78,000 and $82,000, puts and calls are roughly equal in size. The "max pain" level, where option buyers as a group would collect the least, was calculated at $78,000. Max pain is a reference point, not a price target.
Derivatives are otherwise calm. Deribit's DVOL volatility index was near 38.8 on Sunday, and perpetual funding rates were close to neutral, which suggests traders are not heavily leveraged in either direction.
ETF flows held up
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US still recorded net inflows of about $301.2 million in the week to October 23, despite two days of outflows at the end of the week, according to CryptoWatchDesk's ETF data. Flows will be worth watching after the Fed decision, since they have often reflected changes in rate expectations this year.
Price levels traders are watching
- $80,000: The round-number level tested on Saturday and again on Sunday.
- About $79,100: Saturday's low and the lowest price since mid-September.
- $82,000 to $82,500: The area CoinDesk sources say Bitcoin needs to reclaim to restore buyer confidence.
- About $84,250 to $84,850: The October 12 high and last Wednesday's peak, which capped the latest rally.
Three scenarios, not predictions
- Hawkish Fed: Warsh signals a likely December hike, yields rise and BTC tests the $79,000 area or lower.
- Neutral Fed with cooler data: The statement holds steady, PCE comes in at or below expectations and BTC moves back toward $82,000 to $82,500.
- Volatile range: Headlines push prices in both directions between Wednesday and Friday's expiry, with no clear trend until after the data.
What this means for DEX users
Weeks packed with macro events often bring sudden price moves, wider spreads and higher slippage on smaller tokens. If you plan to rebalance, consider doing it outside the minutes around the Fed statement and the PCE release, compare the final amount you receive after fees and keep slippage tolerance reasonable. You can swap supported assets on AviorSwap, which lists 17+ networks, but always check the network and the receiving address before you confirm.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto prices are volatile, and you should only trade what you can afford to lose.